Black Sacrifice
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They are the beatdown and we are the combo deck protecting its kill. Nothing in their Game 1 deck touches the graveyard, and Snuff Out cannot target our black Balustrade Spy or Lotleth Giant, so their only routes to a win are pushing damage through our walls or killing enough bodies in response to the Spy that Dread Return's flashback goes unpaid. Our main deck has no creature removal of its own, and neither Mesmeric Fiend nor Masked Vandal removes one of their creatures, so the game is a straight race between their swarm and our combo. We are the faster side: the combo usually lands before a board of ground 1/1s pushes enough damage past 0/4 and 0/5 defenders, and their removal can only slow us by killing creatures. Where they are ahead is resilience, since their creatures leave tokens or triggers behind when they die while our kill can break to a single removal spell at the wrong moment.
Let the defenders take the attacks. Their only evasive attacker is the Insect token Infestation Sage leaves behind, so Overgrown Battlement and Wall of Roots stop most of their combat damage. The number to track is not what is attacking but what Rite of Consumption deals when they sacrifice a grown Carrion Feeder or a pumped Bloodthrone Vampire after combat, because that damage goes straight past the walls. With the Battlement doing double duty as both our mana and one of our walls, it is also the likeliest target for Snuff Out or a morbid Tragic Slip, so the combo turn should not depend on one copy.
Cast Balustrade Spy with at least four creatures on the battlefield, counting the Spy. Snuff Out for 4 life, Tragic Slip with morbid switched on by a free sacrifice, or a Shambling Ghast fed to Carrion Feeder to shrink a 1/1 can all kill a body in response, and an unpayable flashback after the mill means we draw from an empty library next turn. When the mana allows, cast Mesmeric Fiend right before the Spy: they either fire their removal in response, while we can still hold the Spy back, or lose that card until the Fiend dies, and since nothing in their Game 1 deck touches the graveyard the Fiend is a safe body to sacrifice to Dread Return. Point Masked Vandal at Sadistic Glee, which most of their lists run and which grows its creature off every death on either side into a bigger Rite of Consumption; forestcycling a Generous Ent first gives the Vandal the creature card in our graveyard it needs to exile.
Rotten Reunion is in every one of their sideboards and is their first real answer to the kill: a one-mana instant that exiles Lotleth Giant in response to Dread Return, wasting the flashback after our library is already in the graveyard, with a flashback of its own to exile the second Giant. Post-board, never start the combo into an untapped Swamp or a Treasure without having seen their hand; if we do and they hold Reunion, we are left with an empty library and no kill.
Carrion Feeder is the free sacrifice outlet that turns their removal into instant-speed answers on our combo turn (Bloodthrone Vampire does the same job). Feeding it a Shambling Ghast fires the death trigger's -1/-1 at a 1/1 such as Mesmeric Fiend or Elves of Deep Shadow, and any sacrifice switches on morbid for the Tragic Slip some lists run main, which then kills any creature we own. Snuff Out, also in some main decks, needs no setup at all against our green walls. The punish is casting Balustrade Spy with exactly three creatures while the Feeder is on their board: one kill in response leaves the flashback unpayable after the library is gone. About half their lists also run Accursed Marauder, whose forced sacrifice thins our board at sorcery speed before the combo turn even starts, which is one more reason to go off with a spare body. Every sacrifice the Feeder eats also grows it toward a Rite of Consumption finish.
Nihil Spellbomb comes in from about two-thirds of their sideboards. Tapped and sacrificed at instant speed, it exiles our whole graveyard in response to Dread Return or to Lotleth Giant's trigger, after the library is already gone. Casting Balustrade Spy while it sits untapped on their side means Dread Return has no target left and we draw from an empty library next turn; it has to be cleared first.
Rite of Consumption is their way past the walls. Once Carrion Feeder has grown or Bloodthrone Vampire has been pumped, it cashes that creature in for damage equal to its power that no blocker can stop, and they gain the same amount. Treating the walls as safety and letting our life drift low is how this card wins them the game: a grown Feeder sacrificed after combat goes straight to our face.
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The fourth Mesmeric Fiend comes in because Rotten Reunion is in every one of their sideboards, and the Fiend is the only card in our 75 that can see it in their hand and take it before Balustrade Spy. Even when they can win it back, reading their hand and their open mana tells us whether this is the turn to start the combo.
Undergrowth Leopard destroys Nihil Spellbomb at instant speed without needing a creature card in our graveyard the way Masked Vandal does, so they either fire it into a near-empty graveyard or lose it before the mill. It also answers Sadistic Glee. One copy is enough, because the lists that bring a Spellbomb bring about one and four Vandals already cover it.
Both Nyxborn Hydra go out. Our fallback threat only matters when the combo never comes together, and the walls already hold their ground attack, so both slots are worth more spent on clearing Nihil Spellbomb and seeing Rotten Reunion. Snuff Out also kills the green Hydra for 4 life after we have sunk a turn of mana into X.
Sideboarding moves this matchup moderately in their favor. Their board gives them their first answers to the graveyard kill, instant-speed exile plus a Mesmeric Fiend whose exile a free sacrifice outlet makes permanent, while ours only adds a fourth Fiend and one more piece of artifact removal to fight through it.
Rotten Reunion and Nihil Spellbomb give them their first answers to the graveyard kill, so the combo turn now waits until the Spellbomb is gone and Mesmeric Fiend has checked their hand for Reunion. Alongside those two they bring in their own Mesmeric Fiend, extra Tragic Slip for instant-speed kills on anything once morbid is on, and in some lists more Snuff Out aimed at our green walls and mana creatures (it still cannot target Balustrade Spy, Lotleth Giant, or our Fiend). The race itself does not change shape: they still have to get damage past the walls, but we now have to spend a turn or more clearing the path before pulling the trigger.
Nihil Spellbomb has to sit on the battlefield to work, so it is never a surprise. Before casting Balustrade Spy, aim Masked Vandal's trigger (with a creature card in our graveyard to exile) or Undergrowth Leopard's activation at it, and they either fire it into a graveyard that is still nearly empty or lose it. The Leopard can do this at instant speed on their end step, so the Spy turn starts with the Spellbomb already gone.
Rotten Reunion hides in their hand, so on the combo turn cast Mesmeric Fiend before Balustrade Spy and read their hand along with their open mana. If they cast Reunion in response to the Fiend's trigger to keep it, its flashback still costs them two more mana. If they let the Fiend take it, winning it back takes Tragic Slip or a sacrificed Shambling Ghast on the Fiend, plus one mana to recast Reunion. Start the combo only when their open mana cannot cover the route they actually have, and never sacrifice the Fiend to Dread Return while it holds Reunion, since its leave trigger hands the card back before the reanimation resolves. If they sit on Reunion and the walls make enough mana for both the Spy and a Lotleth Giant already in hand in the same turn, cast the Giant from hand after the mill. Reunion then has no Giant to exile, though a Nihil Spellbomb left on the battlefield in response to its trigger still empties the graveyard.
Their Mesmeric Fiend is the other new problem. With Carrion Feeder or Bloodthrone Vampire out, they sacrifice it while its enters trigger is still on the stack, so the card it takes is exiled for good, and nothing we play stops that. Favor hands with more than one route to Balustrade Spy through Lead the Stampede and Winding Way rather than a lone Spy in the opener. Their extra Tragic Slip copies are the reason to start the combo with a spare body beyond Dread Return's three whenever a sacrifice outlet on their side can switch on morbid.