Black Sacrifice
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Their creatures are almost all 1/1s on the ground, and our 0/3 to 0/5 walls stop them cold, so the game is decided by their removal rather than their creature count. We take the role of protecting the combo: Black Sacrifice has to hold Snuff Out or a morbid Tragic Slip for Axebane Guardian while we assemble the loop, and grow one creature for Rite of Consumption on the side. Their damage has to come from that drain, from the flying Insect tokens Infestation Sage leaves behind, or from attackers that outnumber our blockers, and all of that is slower than an uninterrupted Axebane Guardian loop. Speed, resilience and card quality all lean our way: their kill spells run into four Guardians, Drift of Phantasms transmutes and Galvanic Alchemist as a second untap piece, while a lone 1/1 off the top of their deck barely matters against a wall board. The coin flip matters little, since their removal is instant speed and held for our kill turn whoever is on the play.
Open mana on their side tells you nothing, because Snuff Out needs only a Swamp and 4 life. If a kill spell targets Axebane Guardian in response to Freed from the Real, tap the Guardian and the other walls for mana in response. The mana stays in your pool for the rest of the main phase, so the spell resolves and you still cast a tutor or another wall. When Axebane Guardian has three other defenders beside it, start the loop by pairing Galvanic Alchemist with it instead, because the Alchemist's untap costs 
, so the Guardian must tap for four to net mana: a kill spell in response then costs one creature, and if that creature was the Guardian, the Alchemist pairs with the next one that enters. The same kill spell in response to Freed from the Real takes the Guardian and our only Aura together.
Keep Axebane Guardian and Saruli Caretaker out of combat, because a sacrifice into an attacking Bloodthrone Vampire or a Supernatural Stamina on any attacker gives it enough power to kill a 0/3 blocker; block with Drift of Phantasms, Overgrown Battlement or Wall of Roots instead. Get blue and red from Saruli Caretaker and Axebane Guardian rather than a lone Orochi Leafcaller, which dies to Shambling Ghast whenever they choose to sacrifice it. Our own sacrifices feed them too: cashing Tinder Wall for mana grows Mortician Beetle and turns on morbid for Tragic Slip, so keep it as a defender unless the two red mana finish the kill turn, and when Accursed Marauder’s edict resolves, give up Quirion Ranger or Beastrider Vanguard before any defender.
Snuff Out kills Axebane Guardian or Galvanic Alchemist for 4 life and no mana, so they can hold it through our whole turn with every Swamp tapped. Around a third of lists run it in the maindeck and more bring it in after boarding. Its cleanest window is while our untap piece is on the stack: cast Freed from the Real onto the Guardian into it and the Guardian dies with the Aura still on the stack, so one free card takes both halves of the loop. Once the Aura is attached or the Alchemist is paired, we can keep untapping above a kill spell, which wins on the spot if Valakut Invoker is already on the battlefield.
Tragic Slip is in some maindecks and nearly every sideboard. A free sacrifice to Carrion Feeder or Bloodthrone Vampire turns on morbid at instant speed, so it kills Axebane Guardian whenever they want, and its base -1/-1 alone kills Orochi Leafcaller or Quirion Ranger. Do not turn morbid on for them: sacrificing Tinder Wall for mana on a turn the Guardian has to survive lets the Slip kill it even with no sacrifice outlet on their board.
Mesmeric Fiend comes in from almost every sideboard and is aimed at our single-copy pieces. It reveals our hand and takes Freed from the Real, Valakut Invoker, Galvanic Alchemist or a held Tamiyo’s Safekeeping. If they sacrifice the Fiend to Carrion Feeder, Bloodthrone Vampire or Village Rites while its enters trigger is still on the stack, the card stays exiled for good, so holding a payoff in hand while they have an outlet available is how it punishes us. Each piece needs a second route: Drift of Phantasms finds the Alchemist and Shield-Wall Sentinel finds Secret Door.
Rite of Consumption is the card that gets damage past the walls. It sacrifices a Carrion Feeder or Mortician Beetle that has grown on their sacrifices, hits us for that creature’s power and gains them the same amount, which caps how many turns we can spend assembling the loop. Every extra setup turn is another round of sacrifices growing the creature it will eat.
Shambling Ghast’s death trigger, fired at will by sacrificing it to Carrion Feeder or Bloodthrone Vampire, gives -1/-1 to Orochi Leafcaller or Quirion Ranger. Relying on a lone Leafcaller for blue is the mistake it punishes: the Leafcaller dies and Freed from the Real and Drift of Phantasms sit stuck in hand.
In:
Out:
Tamiyo’s Safekeeping is held for the kill spell they aim at Axebane Guardian or Galvanic Alchemist while Freed from the Real or the Alchemist’s pairing is on the stack. Hexproof leaves Snuff Out, Tragic Slip or Spinning Darkness with no legal target, the creature stays hexproof and indestructible while it loops, and a Forest pays the one green.
Pulse of Murasa returns an Axebane Guardian or Galvanic Alchemist that Snuff Out or Tragic Slip killed to hand at instant speed, and the 6 life offsets a Rite of Consumption. Both copies come in because their number of kill spells goes up after boarding.
Mirrorshell Crab comes in for its channel ability: for it counters Mesmeric Fiend’s enters trigger, a Snuff Out cast on our turn, or a Rite of Consumption whose creature is already sacrificed, unless they pay 
, which they cannot do after tapping out on their own turn.
Beastrider Vanguard goes out: a 2/2 adds nothing to the defender count Axebane Guardian taps for, and trading it with their 1/1s leaves an Insect, Squirrel or Mercenary behind. Both copies make room for protection against the kill spells they bring in.
Reaping the Graves goes out because Pulse of Murasa does the same job against Snuff Out and Tragic Slip, returning a killed Axebane Guardian, but off Forest mana instead of the black our creatures have to make, and it adds 6 life against Rite of Consumption.
Two Quirion Ranger go out: a 1/1 non-defender that Shambling Ghast’s death trigger or Tragic Slip’s base -1/-1 kills. It goes before Orochi Leafcaller, which turns our Forests’ green into the blue and red the deck needs, and two copies stay because its once-a-turn untap of Axebane Guardian still speeds up the setup.
Sideboarding shifts this pairing moderately toward them: Mesmeric Fiend plus extra Tragic Slip, Spinning Darkness and Snuff Out turn the kill spells only some of their lists maindeck into a full package aimed at Axebane Guardian and our single-copy pieces, and that outweighs the two Tamiyo’s Safekeeping, two Pulse of Murasa and one Mirrorshell Crab we bring in to protect the loop.
After boarding they come in with Mesmeric Fiend and more kill spells aimed at Freed from the Real and Axebane Guardian, and the Tamiyo’s Safekeeping we hold for the kill turn becomes the card that gets the loop through their removal. Besides the Fiend and extra Tragic Slip and Snuff Out, many lists add Spinning Darkness, free 3 damage paid by exiling black cards from their graveyard, which kills Axebane Guardian, Saruli Caretaker or Valakut Invoker and gains them 3 life, and extra Accursed Marauder, whose edict gets around hexproof but lets us choose the creature, so it costs a spare non-defender such as Quirion Ranger rather than the Guardian.
On the kill turn, keep one green mana available for Tamiyo’s Safekeeping. Tap the walls for mana first, then cast Freed from the Real or Galvanic Alchemist. When Snuff Out, Tragic Slip or Spinning Darkness targets Axebane Guardian or the Alchemist, give that creature hexproof in response so their spell has no legal target; it stays hexproof and indestructible for the rest of the turn. Mirrorshell Crab is the second layer of protection: for , its channel ability counters a kill spell, Mesmeric Fiend’s enters trigger or a Rite of Consumption whose creature is already sacrificed, unless they pay , which they cannot do after tapping out on their own turn. Pulse of Murasa returns a killed Axebane Guardian or Galvanic Alchemist to hand at instant speed and gains 6 life against Rite of Consumption.
Mesmeric Fiend is the card to plan around. If they have Carrion Feeder, Bloodthrone Vampire or Village Rites to sacrifice it while its enters trigger is on the stack, whatever it takes is exiled for good. It only sees our hand, so cast Secret Door and Valakut Invoker as creatures when you have spare mana rather than holding them. Keep a second route to each piece: if Freed from the Real is taken, transmute Drift of Phantasms for Galvanic Alchemist and build to Axebane Guardian plus three other defenders; if Valakut Invoker is taken, Shield-Wall Sentinel finds Secret Door and its ventures become the kill.