Black Sacrifice
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Nothing in our main deck touches their board, and left alone we go off before their 1/1s finish the job, so Black Sacrifice has to be the beatdown here: they cannot win the long game, so they must race us and disrupt the chain in the time they have. Their only way to win is to kill a reducer often enough that their 1/1s get the extra turn they need, and the cards that do that work, Snuff Out, a Shambling Ghast trigger, Tragic Slip and Accursed Marauder, are not all in every list. In Game 1 their interaction is a handful of removal effects aimed at the reducers or the Elemental, so the Elemental usually attacks before their clock finishes us. We protect the chain rather than block or trade with their creatures: get both reducers down, and go off only with haste.
Aim to have both Goblin Anarchomancer and Thornscape Familiar on the table before the kill turn. Hickory Woodlot first and an untapped red source the next turn casts Goblin Anarchomancer and then Thornscape Familiar for a single green, and with two out, removal fired in response to the first spell of the chain still leaves the rest discounted. The same logic shapes our keeps: a hand with both reducers, or a reducer plus a draw spell to find the second, beats a lone reducer backed only by rituals, because one removal spell on that reducer leaves the rituals with nothing to cast. Resolve First Day of Class before Seize the Storm and attack the turn the Elemental arrives, and never read a tapped-out opponent as safe: Snuff Out costs them 4 life with a Swamp in play, while Tragic Slip at least needs one black mana open.
Before casting Seize the Storm, add their life total to what their untapped blockers can absorb. Each chump-blocking 1/1 stops one point of trample damage, but a blocking Bloodthrone Vampire gains two toughness for every creature they sacrifice to it, death tokens included, and a blocking Mortician Beetle can pick up a counter per sacrifice. If the Elemental falls short, or they may be holding Snuff Out, flash back Seize the Storm in the same main phase when the mana is there so two Elementals attack. Keep the reducers out of combat entirely: a Bloodthrone Vampire pump, Supernatural Stamina or a Shambling Ghast trigger turns a safe-looking block on a 1/1 into a dead reducer. Chump their growing attackers with Eldrazi Spawn from Glimpse the Impossible instead, and sacrifice Spawn for mana only on the kill turn, since each sacrifice can put a counter on Mortician Beetle.
Snuff Out decides most of the games we lose. It kills either reducer or the attacking Elemental at instant speed for 4 life and no mana, so an opponent with a Swamp in play can destroy the Elemental mid-combat even when they are tapped out and we have spent the whole turn's mana on the chain. Never swing with a lone Elemental into a Swamp when the mana for Seize the Storm's flashback is available: the second body is what stops one Snuff Out from wasting the turn. It is in about a third of main decks, and the 4 life each cast costs them comes straight off what the next Elemental has to deal.
Shambling Ghast is in most main decks and is their most common answer to Thornscape Familiar. Sacrificed to Carrion Feeder or Bloodthrone Vampire at instant speed, its death trigger kills the Familiar or an Eldrazi Spawn whenever they choose, including in the middle of our chain. Never go off with Thornscape Familiar as the only reducer while a Ghast and a sacrifice outlet are in play; they kill it in response to the first spell and everything after it costs full price. Goblin Anarchomancer's 2 toughness survives the trigger, which makes it the reducer to cast when only one fits.
Bloodthrone Vampire is their best block against the Elemental. Once blockers are declared, every creature they sacrifice to it, including the tokens those deaths leave behind, adds two toughness the trample damage has to clear before any reaches them, so an untapped Vampire with fodder behind it soaks far more than its 1/1 body suggests. Size the Elemental against their life total alone and they block, feed it their board, and survive the swing; with enough sacrifices its power passes the Elemental's toughness and the Elemental dies as well.
Tragic Slip appears in under a third of main decks but most sideboards. On its own it kills Thornscape Familiar, and because Carrion Feeder, Bloodthrone Vampire or Village Rites can sacrifice a creature at instant speed, morbid is on whenever they want it, so one mana kills Goblin Anarchomancer or an Elemental with 13 or less toughness. Do not attack with an Elemental at 13 toughness or less while they have black mana open and a sacrifice outlet. Instants still in hand after the Elemental is made add to its size as they resolve, so casting them in response can lift it out of range, and First Day of Class's counter means an Elemental whose count reaches 13 has 14 toughness and survives.
Accursed Marauder, in a bit over half of main decks, always hits a reducer because they are our only nontoken creatures, and Eldrazi Spawn do not shield them. Do not pass with a single reducer and nothing to replace it: the edict takes it at sorcery speed while both sacrifices can grow a Mortician Beetle. With both reducers out, sacrifice Thornscape Familiar and keep Goblin Anarchomancer.
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Weather the Storm comes in because Black Sacrifice wins this race by spending Snuff Out, Shambling Ghast, Tragic Slip and Accursed Marauder (more of them after boarding) on our reducers to buy the turn their 1/1s and Rite of Consumption need. It gains 3 life for itself and for each spell cast before it that turn, so cast at the end of a chain that falls short, or after combat when they kill the Elemental, it buys that turn back. It costs only a single green with Goblin Anarchomancer out, and that green comes from the same Hickory Woodlot, Manamorphose or Big Score Treasure that casts our reducers, so the main deck supplies it as long as we save one of them for it instead of spending it on the rituals.
Wrenn's Resolve goes out because when their removal takes a reducer and our kill slips a turn, the impulse spells lose the most of any of our draw spells. Anything they exile that we cannot afford by the end of our next turn stays exiled, and an unused card without flashback adds nothing to the Elemental. Electric Revelation and Big Score put their cards in hand to wait, and Glimpse the Impossible's leftovers go to the graveyard and make Eldrazi Spawn to chump their attackers. Both copies go to make room for Weather the Storm.
One Reckless Impulse goes with them. Its text is identical to Wrenn's Resolve, so the cut is only about count: it frees the third slot for Weather the Storm. The three we keep are still our cheapest way to see two cards at full price when their removal leaves us without a reducer, and the cards they exile are out of a post-board Mesmeric Fiend's reach.
Sideboarding moves this matchup a moderate step toward Black Sacrifice: they gain hand disruption, graveyard exile and more reducer removal that all land squarely on our plan, while our only addition is the lifegain that buys back the turn that interaction costs us.
They come back more interactive. Mesmeric Fiend, Nihil Spellbomb and Rotten Reunion join extra reducer removal, so our hand and the Elemental's graveyard count both come under attack, and each piece of interaction that lands is another turn their 1/1s get to attack. Our three Weather the Storm are what buy that turn back.
Keep hands that can find a second reducer. Mesmeric Fiend takes Seize the Storm or a reducer from our hand, and with Carrion Feeder or Bloodthrone Vampire out they sacrifice it while its enters trigger is still on the stack, so the card never comes back. Extra Tragic Slip, Spinning Darkness (usually free, and its 3 life raises what the Elemental has to clear), Accursed Marauder and Snuff Out make the first reducer even more likely to die. Cards Reckless Impulse exiles are out of the Fiend's reach, so a Seize the Storm it finds on a setup turn stays safe until the kill turn.
Nihil Spellbomb and Rotten Reunion go after the Elemental's count. Cracked once the chain is done, Spellbomb exiles our whole graveyard and leaves the Elemental counting only our Electric Revelation and Seize the Storm cards, which still count from exile, plus its counter. When it is on the battlefield, cast First Day of Class early in the chain and use its Learn to fetch Origin of Metalbending to destroy it. They will crack it in response, but an early graveyard is small and the rest of the chain refills it. Rotten Reunion exiles one card per cast, twice with flashback: exiling a ritual or draw spell costs the Elemental a point, while a flashback card keeps its point but can no longer be cast, so pitch Electric Revelation to discard costs ahead of Seize the Storm.
Weather the Storm covers the turn their removal takes from us. Storm counts every spell cast earlier in the turn, so after Snuff Out or Tragic Slip kills the Elemental, a Weather the Storm cast later that turn still gains 3 life for itself and each spell before it and sets up the next Seize the Storm. It costs only a single green with Goblin Anarchomancer, so leave Hickory Woodlot untapped or a Big Score Treasure unused for it. With no Spellbomb in play, Origin of Metalbending is still the Learn target: cast in response to Snuff Out, its mode that adds a +1/+1 counter and indestructible saves the attacking Elemental, and it too needs a green source left untapped through combat.