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They are the beatdown and we are the control deck, and that holds even on the turns where their board looks like a pile of 1/1s. About three-quarters of their nonland cards cost one mana, Carrion Feeder and Bloodthrone Vampire sacrifice for free, and Rite of Consumption turns a grown creature into a burst of damage, so they are attacking and growing well before we have the mana for Mulldrifter and Ephemerate together, while our fliers hit for 1 or 2 at a time. They have no card-draw engine, though, so they have to end the game before our extra cards take over. We do not race back. The early turns are survival: removal on the creatures that grow, Baleful Strix blocking, and Counterspell held for the spells that actually matter, until Mulldrifter and the Archaeomancer loop start drawing us out of reach. Their interaction is light: Shambling Ghast's death trigger, plus Snuff Out and Tragic Slip in some lists, all aimed at clearing our blockers or killing a creature in response to Ephemerate.
Removal goes at the creatures that grow: Carrion Feeder, Mortician Beetle, Bloodthrone Vampire, or whatever wears Sadistic Glee, since killing that creature takes the Aura with it. Nested Shambler, Infestation Sage and Nezumi Linkbreaker each leave a token when they die, and with a free outlet on board they get sacrificed in response to our removal anyway, so leave them to blockers that survive them, like Murmuring Mystic and Archaeomancer. Cut Down wants Carrion Feeder or Bloodthrone Vampire early, before they have creatures to sacrifice in response: one sacrifice makes the Vampire a 3/3 for the turn, and a Feeder with two counters is a 3/3 for good, both past Cut Down's limit. Cast Down and Dispatch with metalcraft are the answers we save for a grown threat.
Once they have a grown creature, Counterspell is for Rite of Consumption: the sacrifice is paid as a cost, so a countered Rite still leaves them down that creature. Accursed Marauder and Bloodthrone Vampire are also worth it; their one-mana creatures are not, because paying two mana for one of them puts us behind a deck that deploys one or two a turn. Judge our life total against the grown creature's power twice, once in combat and once from the Rite. With Mortician Beetle or a Sadistic Glee creature on their side, evoke Mulldrifter only with Ephemerate cast in response to the sacrifice trigger, or hardcast it; a plain evoke sacrifices Mulldrifter and hands them a +1/+1 counter. Keep Baleful Strix and Murmuring Mystic home as blockers until their growing creatures are handled; only their Insect tokens can block in the air, so once the board is stable our fliers attack freely.
Carrion Feeder is their main threat and a free sacrifice outlet at once. Whatever creature we target, they sacrifice it in response for a +1/+1 counter, taking the death trigger while our spell does nothing, so do not spend removal on their expendable creatures while the Feeder is on the board. Two counters make it a 3/3 out of Cut Down's range, and from there it needs Cast Down, Dispatch with metalcraft, or a Baleful Strix block. Dispatch is the cleanest of those: exile leaves nothing for Unearth or Supernatural Stamina to bring back, and there is no size for the Feeder to grow past.
Rite of Consumption is the burst finish against our slow clock. After combat it sacrifices their biggest creature to deal its power to us and gain that much, so a grown Carrion Feeder or Mortician Beetle threatens lethal from a life total that looks safe on board. Tapping out on our turn against a grown creature is the mistake it punishes: it hits us in combat, then gets sacrificed to deal its power to us a second time. Hold Counterspell for it; since the creature is sacrificed as a cost, countering the spell leaves them down the creature with no drain.
Mortician Beetle grows off every sacrifice by either player: their outlets and Village Rites, both halves of Accursed Marauder, and our own evoked Mulldrifter. It is a removal target while it is still small enough for Cut Down, and while it is in play we never evoke Mulldrifter without Ephemerate in response to the sacrifice trigger.
Shambling Ghast, in most lists, is their instant-speed removal: sacrificed to a free outlet, its death trigger gives one of our creatures -1/-1, which kills Baleful Strix, Refurbished Familiar or a Bird token and breaks up the deathtouch blocks we rely on. Blocking a grown Carrion Feeder with Baleful Strix while the Ghast is on their side is the trap: they sacrifice the Ghast to the Feeder before damage, the -1/-1 kills the Strix, and the Feeder lives with one more counter.
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Arms of Hadar comes in because every creature card in their deck has 1 toughness, so this one-sided -2/-2 kills everything they control that has not already grown to two or more +1/+1 counters, and Nested Shambler dies at negative power and makes no Squirrels. Cast it after Carrion Feeder and Bloodthrone Vampire are gone, because with a free outlet they sacrifice the doomed creatures in response to grow Carrion Feeder, Mortician Beetle or the Vampire out of range.
Crypt Incursion comes in because their sacrifices fill their graveyard with creature cards, so this instant gains 3 life for each one, winning back the life their attacks and Rite of Consumption take. Cast in response to Unearth or a Supernatural Stamina return, it also exiles the creature before it comes back.
Thraben Charm comes in because all three modes have targets here: destroy Sadistic Glee; exile their graveyard at instant speed against Unearth, a Supernatural Stamina return or a Rotten Reunion waiting to be flashed back; or deal two damage per creature we control to Carrion Feeder or Mortician Beetle once they have nothing left to sacrifice.
Nihil Spellbomb comes in as a one-mana artifact toward Dispatch's metalcraft that can exile their graveyard in response to Unearth or a Supernatural Stamina return and then draw a card for a black mana. Only one copy, because Crypt Incursion and Thraben Charm already cover that graveyard role.
Lórien Revealed loses two copies because a five-mana sorcery that draws three does nothing about Carrion Feeder and a board of one-mana creatures attacking us. Two copies stay alongside Preordain because Islandcycling for one mana finds Glacial Floodplain or Contaminated Aquifer to fix the white and black our sideboard cards need, and the hardcast still pays off once the board is stable.
Counterspell loses two copies because paying two mana for one of their one-mana creatures puts us a mana behind a deck that deploys one or two a turn. Two copies stay for Rite of Consumption, Accursed Marauder and Mesmeric Fiend, and Dispel stays in over the cut copies because at one mana it keeps pace with Village Rites, Supernatural Stamina and Tragic Slip.
Sideboarding does not move this matchup much in either direction: our additions are single copies with big swings, a one-sided sweep and a graveyard exile that gains a chunk of life, while they bring two or three copies each of removal, hand disruption and graveyard exile aimed squarely at the Ephemerate and Archaeomancer engine.
We add Arms of Hadar as a one-sided sweep against a board where every creature card has 1 toughness, while they add Tragic Slip, Mesmeric Fiend and Rotten Reunion to break up the Ephemerate and Archaeomancer engine. Arms of Hadar is the card to build toward. Cast it after Carrion Feeder and Bloodthrone Vampire are dead, or when they have no spare creatures: with a free outlet in play they sacrifice the creatures that are dying anyway in response and grow Carrion Feeder, Mortician Beetle or the Vampire out of range. Nested Shambler dies at negative power and makes no Squirrels, but Infestation Sage and Nezumi Linkbreaker still leave their tokens after the sweep. Archaeomancer can now return Arms of Hadar or Crypt Incursion, so it is worth more here than in Game 1.
Hold Crypt Incursion until their graveyard has several creature cards in it, or cast it in response to Unearth or a Supernatural Stamina return so the creature never comes back; the life it gains gives us room against a Rite of Consumption drain. Thraben Charm and Nihil Spellbomb exile their whole graveyard, which also removes a Rotten Reunion they could flash back and the black cards Spinning Darkness needs for its free cost, and Thraben Charm's enchantment mode answers Sadistic Glee. Play the Spellbomb early as an artifact toward Dispatch's metalcraft and hold the activation.
Their sideboard cards aim at the engine, so the way we use Ephemerate and Archaeomancer changes: