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Black Sacrifice is the aggressor, and we cannot race it. Their curve of one-mana creatures builds a wide board while our opening turns go to draw spells, so despite being the tempo deck in most pairings, we take the control seat here: contain the growth payoffs, stabilize behind a serpent their one-power swarm cannot attack through, and win the longer game their engine cannot. The matchup favors us, since few of their cards answer a 5/5 at all and our draws outclass a deck of 1/1s the longer the game goes, but the exchange rates keep it from being easy: their creatures die into tokens and counters, so answers spent on fodder trade down, while Snuff Out and Accursed Marauder answer a lone serpent and Rite of Consumption ends a race from a life total that looks safe on board. Our Counterspell, Force Spike, and Deem Inferior have to break Carrion Feeder and Mortician Beetle long enough for a serpent to wall the ground. They have to finish us before our card quality takes over; every clean answer on a growth payoff narrows their window.
Counter discipline decides the opening turns. Force Spike is at its best while they are still tapped out, stopping a Carrion Feeder or Mortician Beetle outright, and the die roll matters here: on their play a second wave of creatures lands before we have a blocker, while on ours that tapped-out window is the main prize. Hold Counterspell for Accursed Marauder, Rite of Consumption, and Sadistic Glee; trading it for one-mana fodder is the losing exchange this matchup tempts us into, since they deploy two threats for each counter and the spells that actually beat us then resolve unopposed. Deploy the first serpent with a spare creature down or counter mana open. A Murmuring Mystic on the battlefield means Accursed Marauder's forced sacrifice can take the 1/5 instead of the serpent, though never its Bird Illusion tokens, because the edict asks for a nontoken creature.
Once a serpent lands, hold it back as a blocker while the cantrips refuel us, and start attacking only when our life total still clears a Rite of Consumption drain equal to their biggest creature's power. Aim Deem Inferior at the payoff that already grew: it puts the creature into their library without a death, so the counters are gone for good and it leaves behind no tokens, no Unearth target, and no Sadistic Glee growth. Cast a draw spell first in the same turn to cheapen it. Expect the ground to clog with Squirrel and Insect tokens chump-blocking the serpents. When that happens, the Bird Illusion tokens from Murmuring Mystic are often the real clock, because only Infestation Sage's Insect token can block them, and Artful Dodge sends a serpent past the chump-blockers for a turn.
Carrion Feeder is the card the matchup bends around. It can't block, so it never slows our serpents; the danger is that every sacrifice grows the attacker Rite of Consumption later converts into a drain. As a free sacrifice outlet it also lets them dodge our targeted spells: point Deem Inferior at any other creature while it is on the battlefield and they eat the target in response; our card does nothing, the death still pays them anyway, and the outlet banks another counter. Answer Carrion Feeder itself, with Force Spike on the stack early or Deem Inferior once it has grown.
Accursed Marauder is their cleanest answer to our plan. The forced sacrifice ignores both targeting and Tolarian Terror's ward, and since we usually present exactly one creature, a two-mana creature removes the serpent, while their own half cashes in a death trigger they wanted anyway. Every copy they draw stays live for as long as we keep exactly one nontoken creature on the battlefield, so tapping out for a lone serpent is the mistake it punishes. This card is the reason the serpent waits for Counterspell mana or a Murmuring Mystic already in play, a second nontoken creature to absorb the edict, which its Bird Illusion tokens cannot do.
Rite of Consumption steals games we have already stabilized. They attack, then sacrifice their biggest creature in the second main phase to drain us for its power, so a close race ends from a life total that looks safe on board, and the life they gain swings the race back the other way at the same time. It is a sorcery, so Counterspell and Force Spike can catch it, and because the sacrifice is an additional cost paid on casting, they lose the creature even when we counter it.
Mortician Beetle demands an answer even while it looks idle. Unlike Carrion Feeder it blocks, and every sacrifice on their side (a Village Rites, a Carrion Feeder activation, a Rite of Consumption) grows it without costing them any extra mana. Left alive through their sacrifice turns, it becomes the one ground creature that walls Tolarian Terror while still attacking. Catch it with Force Spike in the opening turns or pull it off the board with Deem Inferior once the counters pile up.
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Gut Shot comes in as three effectively free removal spells. Every creature in their mainboard has one toughness, so a spell paid with two life kills Carrion Feeder, Mortician Beetle, or Bloodthrone Vampire while it is still a 1/1, unless they sacrifice another creature in response to grow it out of range, all while our counter mana stays open.
Annul is the clean counter for Sadistic Glee, the aura that turns their chump deaths into a growing attacker, and it covers Nihil Spellbomb after boarding. Two copies is the ceiling: Sylvok Lifestaff and Vampiric Link also show up after boarding in some lists, but their artifact and enchantment cards are few, and extra copies rot against their creature draws.
Sleep of the Dead goes out. Tapping one creature buys little against a wide, expendable board that chump-blocks with Squirrel and Insect tokens and rebuilds every turn, and each escape recast exiles three graveyard cards our serpent discounts want.
Force Spike is trimmed, not cut. It is live only against their tapped-out opening turns, where it stops a Carrion Feeder or Accursed Marauder outright; from the mid-game their spare lands always cover the tax, so a single copy keeps the early hit without flooding the late game.
Deep Analysis leaves because a four-mana sorcery-speed tap-out is exactly the window Accursed Marauder and Rite of Consumption want to resolve in, and after boarding their Nihil Spellbomb and Rotten Reunion exile the flashback half.
Sideboarding leaves the pairing about where it started. Their menu against us is deeper (graveyard hate, Mesmeric Fiend, and removal upgrades), but Gut Shot into a mainboard where every creature has one toughness is the single most impactful bring-in either side has, so the exchange balances and the edge we hold in game one carries over.
Gut Shot is the headline change: the payoffs that in game one we had to catch on the stack or spend a Deem Inferior on can now be killed cheaply at instant speed after they resolve. The discipline is to shoot the payoff itself (Carrion Feeder, Mortician Beetle, or whatever wears Sadistic Glee) and never the fodder while a sacrifice outlet is on the battlefield, because they will sacrifice the target in response, our spell does nothing, and the death still pays them. Shooting Nested Shambler is close to pointless anyway, since its death leaves a Squirrel behind. Killing the pieces that convert deaths into a clock is worth more than any exchange with the bodies that feed them.
Threat deployment tightens up. Lead Tolarian Terror over Cryptic Serpent and land it with counter mana up: Counterspell or the lone Dispel covers Tragic Slip and Snuff Out, and the ward taxes whatever slips through. Many lists also bring extra copies of Accursed Marauder, so sandbag the second threat: the edict takes nothing from an empty board while their half still gives up a creature, and when we do commit, a Murmuring Mystic on the battlefield is the designated sacrifice, a job its Bird Illusion tokens cannot do because the edict asks for a nontoken creature. The same protection extends to our hand: counter Mesmeric Fiend on cast whenever possible, because with an outlet already down they can exile the taken card for good by sacrificing it while its enters trigger is still on the stack, and killing it ourselves in that window locks the exile just the same; once the trigger has resolved, removing it returns the card.
A stocked graveyard becomes a liability after boarding, so cash it in. Rotten Reunion is a bring-in in most of their sideboards that exiles a card from our graveyard at instant speed and leaves a Zombie token behind, with flashback doubling the tax, and about two thirds of their lists add Nihil Spellbomb, whose one activation exiles the whole graveyard and pushes both serpents back toward their full seven-mana cost. Cast the serpent on the turn it is cheap rather than waiting for a perfect window: the discount is locked in when the spell is cast, so their exile only hurts if it comes down first. After a Nihil Spellbomb empties our graveyard, keep chaining cantrips (every Thought Scour and Mental Note restocks it three cards at a time) and hold Counterspell for the Rite of Consumption that tries to end the game we just stabilized.